Economics & Policy Emerging Markets RSS

In-depth analysis of key global, regional and country-specific economic trends, future growth and inflation prospects and fiscal and monetary policy responses by the Emerging Markets team.

  • Chavez medical tests boost opposition electoral prospects

    22 Feb 2012

    Markets took the news that Hugo Chavez will again seek medical treatment as positive for Venezuela's opposition

  • Colombia and the seductive folly of capital controls

    22 Feb 2012

    Data suggests the economy continues to boom - but the government may struggle to contain peso appreciation, increasing the risk it will dabble with capital controls

  • Overhyping the Chinese RRR cut

    20 Feb 2012

    The central bank's decision is seen as the first step towards looser monetary policy - but in reality interest rate hikes are more likely, say analysts at Credit Suisse

  • Accrued interest: EM reads

    17 Feb 2012

    Our selection of emerging markets-focused commentary on markets, economics and international policy, updated throughout the week

  • Feb 17: Emerging markets' funding dilemma

    16 Feb 2012

    Sovereigns turning to sukuk to replace traditional financing is the lead story in our round-up of this week's articles on Emerging Markets Online

  • India’s inflation problem eases

    14 Feb 2012

    Lower inflation should allow the Reserve Bank of India to cut rates within months – so long as the eurozone crisis doesn’t bring capital flight risks to the fore

  • EM reserve accumulation drive stronger than ever

    07 Feb 2012

    Recent financial crises have only reinforced the allure of piling up on FX reserves, a process that's delaying the rebalancing of global demand while adding to the stockpile of US Treasuries.

  • Fried chicken as a proxy for Chinese consumption

    07 Feb 2012

    US fast-food conglomerate Yum! Brands' latest China sales figures and Chinese expansion efforts serve as an imperfect bellwether for the Asian nation's retail outlook

  • EM FX fallout: cut spending or be damned

    06 Feb 2012

    Government spending cuts could be one way to stem the currency appreciation tide in Latin America, says Capital Economics, but at a cost. Still, it will do little to reduce potential distortions in the financial sector

  • IMF: Crisis could slash China growth to 4%

    06 Feb 2012

    A eurozone-induced global financial crisis could trigger a crash landing for the Chinese economy unless Beijing enacts a fresh stimulus, the IMF has warned.

  • Malev turbulence set to roil Hungarian state finances

    06 Feb 2012

    The collapse of Hungary's national airline will heap more pressure on the country's already stretched finances, analysts warn

  • Romania 'risks losing investor credibility'

    06 Feb 2012

    Investors could turn on Romania if it abandons its tough austerity commitments following the resignation of prime minister Emil Boc, analysts warn

  • Feb 3: Carry on trading

    03 Feb 2012

    It feels like 2010 again: an EM currency rally, US angst over Chinese currency policy, and global 'currency war' fears.

  • Argentina: the cost of under-reporting inflation

    02 Feb 2012

    The IMF has given Argentina six months to improve the accuracy of its inflation numbers, amid warnings that continued under-reporting will lead to a painful adjustment and possible recession

  • Brazilian real appreciation rekindles ‘currency war’ concerns

    02 Feb 2012

    Expectations are mounting that Brazil may intervene to stem recent sustained currency appreciation and inflows, raising fears of renewed currency and trade tensions across developed and emerging markets

  • Turkey: crunch time for policymakers

    02 Feb 2012

    Recent currency gains and a reduced current account deficit appear to suggest that Turkey’s unorthodox policy mix is working. But analysts warn that the risks of a hard landing remain severe

  • IMF's China currency bombshell

    01 Feb 2012

    The IMF's decision to review whether China's currency is still "substantially undervalued" could prove a political bombshell given the US election season and the Fund's desire to tap Beijing for funding.

  • India’s new impossible trinity

    01 Feb 2012

    The Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy bind - boosting growth and liquidity without fueling inflation - is set to remain firmly entrenched, even amid a tentative recovery in the rupee

  • Jan 23-27: EM reads

    27 Jan 2012

    Our selection of emerging markets-focused commentary on markets, economics and international policy, updated throughout the week

  • Jan 27: A call to monetary arms

    27 Jan 2012

    Markets are betting that EM central banks will cut rates in earnest, but their capacity to act remains constrained by ongoing concerns over currency, capital flows and inflation

  • US Fed: late to the inflation-targeting party

    27 Jan 2012

    By announcing a 2% inflation goal, the US Federal Reserve appears to be following in the foosteps of long-standing emerging market inflation targeters at a time when many are increasingly tilting towards growth

  • Brazil rates: how low will they go?

    26 Jan 2012

    Brazil’s central bank indicated that interest rates will fall below 10% this year, but how far they cut and for how long will depend on fiscal policy

  • Message to emerging markets: prepare for QE3

    26 Jan 2012

    The US Federal Reserve has strongly hinted that it may sanction a further round of quantitative easing in the coming months, posing policy challenges for emerging markets

  • Asean rate cuts: more aggressive than post-Lehman

    25 Jan 2012

    Thai rate cut highlights how monetary easing in the Asean region this year is set to outpace the post-Lehman maelstrom, according to Nomura.

  • China Davos snub goes viral

    25 Jan 2012

    China's historic decision to miss the World Economic Forum is rich in symbolism and has stirred debate

  • Hungary: a temporary hiatus

    25 Jan 2012

    Hungary’s surprise rate hold does not suggest that Budapest is close to an agreement with the EU. Expect more rate rises, currency weakness and rising bond yields, analysts warn

  • Eastern Europe slowdown warning belies recession risks

    24 Jan 2012

    The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasts 3.1% GDP growth in the region in 2012, but warns that any worsening of the eurozone crisis could trigger recession

  • IMF slashes emerging market growth forecasts

    24 Jan 2012

    The International Monetary Fund is the latest high-profile organisation to cut its EM growth outlook for 2012, but stopped short of a recession warning.

  • Indian central bank: no rate cuts without fiscal consolidation

    24 Jan 2012

    The Reserve Bank of India kept rates on hold, warning that fiscal consolidation is critical to create the space to cut rates without the imminent risk of resurgent inflation

  • EM monetary policy: growth to the fore

    23 Jan 2012

    Investors are betting on a slew of EM rate cuts this year but FX volatility and stubborn inflation might spoil the stimulus party

  • Ominous omen: Israel cuts rates

    23 Jan 2012

    The move by Israeli central bank governor Stanley Fischer, a renowned monetary policy prophet, sugggests further rate cuts across EM

  • Rising Asian demand ‘will cushion euro export blow’

    23 Jan 2012

    Asian export economies are now better insulated against a slowdown in Europe and the US than they were in 2008-9, according to new research

  • Jan 20: Green shoots vs. yellow weeds

    20 Jan 2012

    The apparent decoupling between asset markets – EM equities, in particular - and continued macro stress this week is a source of optimism for some and fear for others. Take your pick.

  • Greece woes mount as debt talks reach climax

    19 Jan 2012

    Crisis talks with private sector debt holders are reaching a climax, but even if a deal is reached, it will do little to resolve Greece’s chronic fiscal problems

  • IMF funding boost: over to you, China

    19 Jan 2012

    The bulk of the $600 billion in new funds sought by the IMF will have to come from large emerging economies. It's do or die.

  • Indonesia “the India of two years ago”

    19 Jan 2012

    Warnings that loose monetary policy to turbo-charge growth to 7% could sow the seeds of a hard landing in two years time

  • Mexico pension funds: rolling in it

    19 Jan 2012

    Mexican pension funds – holding some $121bn of assets – have generated strong real returns in recent years and could provide a strong technical bid for domestic stocks

  • China property downturn gathers pace

    18 Jan 2012

    Further house price falls in December have heightened fears that a property crash will significantly drag down growth in 2012

  • Message from Vienna: time is running out

    18 Jan 2012

    A new Vienna Initiative is urgently needed to prevent financial system meltdown in Central and Eastern Europe, key stakeholders have warned

  • Soaring oil costs 'could deepen Europe’s downturn'

    18 Jan 2012

    Currency weakness has driven energy costs in Europe to near-record highs, analysts warn

  • World Bank issues emerging market recession warning

    18 Jan 2012

    A Lehman-type event in Europe or the US could shave more than 4% off GDP growth in developing nations, the World Bank has warned

  • China data point to soft landing, rising property risks

    17 Jan 2012

    China’s latest growth numbers should dispel fears of an imminent hard landing, but property concerns are beginning to bite

  • Hungary plays with fire

    17 Jan 2012

    The European Commission has launched legal proceedings against Budapest, raising the stakes in bitter negotiations over a financial rescue package

  • Saudi Arabia’s $100 crude bombshell

    17 Jan 2012

    Saudi Arabia’s move to keep oil prices at $100 a barrel highlights fiscal concerns and could have profound regional and global implications

  • Vienna 2.0: all talk, no action. Yet

    17 Jan 2012

    Talks on a new Vienna Initiative to prevent banking sector collapse across Central and Eastern Europe have so far failed to yield concrete results

  • CEE: hostage to eurozone fortunes

    16 Jan 2012

    Standard and Poor's decision to downgrade nine eurozone sovereigns has heightened the risks for Central and Eastern Europe, experts warn

  • Egypt-IMF negotiations: this time it’s different

    16 Jan 2012

    The odds of a balance-of-payments crisis in Egypt are uncomfortably high, despite talks this week between the capital-starved nation and the IMF

  • India’s inflation fight: a temporary victory

    16 Jan 2012

    New figures show Indian inflation at a two-year low, but analysts warn that the structural drivers of price growth remain intact

  • Subsidy backlash highlights Nigeria policy bind

    16 Jan 2012

    The Nigerian government has partially reinstated fuel subsidies, throwing into sharp relief the limitations of its reformist push

  • Growth fears cast shadow over emerging world

    Growth fears cast shadow over emerging world

    09 Jan 2012

    A slowdown across the emerging economies is all but inevitable in 2012, as policymakers grapple with both external and domestic pressures

EM Week


In Focus: Eastern Europe

  1. Eurozone deleveraging threatens CEE growth

  2. Malev turbulence set to roil Hungarian state finances

  3. Romania 'risks losing investor credibility'

  4. Hungary: a temporary hiatus