Financial Markets Emerging Markets RSS

In-depth analysis of key investment trends and investment ideas across emerging currency, debt and equities markets by the Emerging Markets team.

  • EM local currency debt bull run, a refresher

    22 Feb 2012

    The decent - and sustained - pace of inflows into local currency emerging market debt year-to-date confirms the asset class's mainstream allure, according to Barclays Capital. But capital controls inhibit access for big-ticket investors.

  • Ice Cold in Alex (and Cairo)

    22 Feb 2012

    Egypt has been the biggest gainer in global equities so far this year, despite the country’s dire situation – but investors there may be less delusional than some

  • EM equities and FX risk

    21 Feb 2012

    Hard currency and local currency EM equity returns have moved in lockstep over the past decade – suggesting little reason to hedge FX risk when investing

  • DM correlations falling; where now for EM?

    20 Feb 2012

    The correlation between developed market equities has fallen dramatically year-to-date, a boon for the rally's prospects, according to Nomura.

  • EM equities: Similar, but different

    20 Feb 2012

    Emerging market stocks have been tracking developed markets more closely than ever in recent years – but this doesn’t have to stop them delivering better returns

  • Fiscal authoritarianism vs. monetary anarchy: Bob's World

    20 Feb 2012

    The eurozone is blowing up, central banks are forever blowing bubbles, markets are drunk on liquidity and the hangover will be the worst in living memory. Monday thoughts from Nomura's Bob Janjuah.

  • Accrued interest: EM reads

    17 Feb 2012

    Our selection of emerging markets-focused commentary on markets, economics and international policy, updated throughout the week

  • One view on the Iran-Israel nuclear fallout

    17 Feb 2012

    A Middle Eastern analyst waxes lyrical about the uncomfortably fat tail risk of military conflict with Iran.

  • RISK ON! - Postcards from Draghi's liquidity safari

    17 Feb 2012

    Greek solvency woes, Chinese debt burdens and Middle East political risk. Markets have shrugged off these global headwinds year-to-date principally thanks to gigantic monetary stimulus from the ECB.

  • Eurozone deleveraging threatens CEE growth

    16 Feb 2012

    Even if the ECB’s financing operations have reduced the risk of a sudden stop in flows to Emerging Europe, growth will be hit by eurozone bank deleveraging, says Capital Economics

  • Feb 17: Emerging markets' funding dilemma

    16 Feb 2012

    Sovereigns turning to sukuk to replace traditional financing is the lead story in our round-up of this week's articles on Emerging Markets Online

  • Hynix vote shows why the Korean discount persists

    16 Feb 2012

    Korean equities look strikingly cheap compared to most of Asia, especially given the growing global reach of leading firms – but corporate governance issues explain the gap

  • Chancing on EEMEA equities, in pictures

    15 Feb 2012

    Valuations for Eastern European equities are attractive despite the risks, say analysts at Credit Suisse

  • Egypt sukuk: deal or no deal

    15 Feb 2012

    After Western aid fails to come through, Egypt is attempting to tap the sukuk market to plug its financing gap - but getting a deal off the ground will be easier said than done

  • Turkey’s lucky streak continues

    15 Feb 2012

    Recent data suggests the economy could avoid a hard landing in 2012 – but if the global market backdrop darkens, the seeds of Turkey’s instability have already been sown

  • China's CIC quashes Europe bailout talk. Again.

    13 Feb 2012

    China's sovereign wealth fund's restatement that it won't invest in eurozone rescue funds shines a light on its investment preference: physical assets in Europe.

  • Curing the Chinese local debt hangover, part 1

    13 Feb 2012

    China has told its banks to roll over a huge number of loans, according to the FT, but the debt clock continues to tick – much more transparency is needed.

  • LatAm trade of year: shorting Chavez

    13 Feb 2012

    Venezuelan bonds could be on the cusp of a massive rally if the opposition candidate, Henrique Capriles Radonski, dethrones Chavez at the October election.

  • Breaking the commodity cycle, Jordan edition

    07 Feb 2012

    Jordan's ambitious energy independence plans should be met with fiscal tightening at a time when Saudi-style stimulus demands have snowballed

  • Fried chicken as a proxy for Chinese consumption

    07 Feb 2012

    US fast-food conglomerate Yum! Brands' latest China sales figures and Chinese expansion efforts serve as an imperfect bellwether for the Asian nation's retail outlook

  • Banks cut EMEA sovereign dollar bond exposures

    06 Feb 2012

    EM sovereign dollar bonds have markedly under-performed their credit default swap cousins and comparable US corporates, possibly down to the fact Western banks face higher inventory charges.

  • Romania 'risks losing investor credibility'

    06 Feb 2012

    Investors could turn on Romania if it abandons its tough austerity commitments following the resignation of prime minister Emil Boc, analysts warn

  • Feb 3: Carry on trading

    03 Feb 2012

    It feels like 2010 again: an EM currency rally, US angst over Chinese currency policy, and global 'currency war' fears.

  • Meet 'Ben' Jiabao

    03 Feb 2012

    Can a Ben Bernanke/Wen Jiabao put save the global economy?

  • The ties that bind London and the RMB

    03 Feb 2012

    Here's a crib-sheet charting London's role as an offshore trading centre for the renminbi. But don't confuse these market developments with making the Chinese currency fully convertible.

  • Argentina: the cost of under-reporting inflation

    02 Feb 2012

    The IMF has given Argentina six months to improve the accuracy of its inflation numbers, amid warnings that continued under-reporting will lead to a painful adjustment and possible recession

  • Consensus forms on EM currency rally

    01 Feb 2012

    A cosy consensus has emerged that emerging market currencies can maintain their upward bias given strong liquidity conditions and attractive valuations.

  • Asia vs. EEMEA: FX/oil prices edition

    31 Jan 2012

    Weaker Brent crude prices - especially in local currency terms - are likely to buoy Asia markets, and boost monetary easing. But it's a different story for EEMEA, according to a Bank of America report.

  • Direct impact of QE3 and LTROs on EM ‘will be limited’

    31 Jan 2012

    Further liquidity operations by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank won't directly result in a flood of capital to emerging markets, analysts suggest.

  • EM currency rally: hold on tight

    31 Jan 2012

    The monetary policy/risk on-off dynamic holds the key as to whether EM currencies can continue their storming start to 2012.

  • Jan 23-27: EM reads

    27 Jan 2012

    Our selection of emerging markets-focused commentary on markets, economics and international policy, updated throughout the week

  • Jan 27: A call to monetary arms

    27 Jan 2012

    Markets are betting that EM central banks will cut rates in earnest, but their capacity to act remains constrained by ongoing concerns over currency, capital flows and inflation

  • Brazil rates: how low will they go?

    26 Jan 2012

    Brazil’s central bank indicated that interest rates will fall below 10% this year, but how far they cut and for how long will depend on fiscal policy

  • Message to emerging markets: prepare for QE3

    26 Jan 2012

    The US Federal Reserve has strongly hinted that it may sanction a further round of quantitative easing in the coming months, posing policy challenges for emerging markets

  • Apple's China charm offensive pays off

    25 Jan 2012

    China is the undisputed king of the Brics for Apple, highlighting the country’s huge – but all too often derided – consumption story

  • Hungary: a temporary hiatus

    25 Jan 2012

    Hungary’s surprise rate hold does not suggest that Budapest is close to an agreement with the EU. Expect more rate rises, currency weakness and rising bond yields, analysts warn

  • Revealed: the missing 25% of Angola's GDP

    25 Jan 2012

    The IMF has uncovered that a $32 billion accounting discrepancy in Angola's budget is linked to state oil firm Sonangol. A massive shift in Luanda's institutional framework and political culture is needed to weed out fiscal slippage.

  • The great Western bank deleveraging

    25 Jan 2012

    IIF sounds alarm on Western bank retreat from emerging markets, as capital flows are forecast to fall to $746bn this year.

  • Eastern Europe slowdown warning belies recession risks

    24 Jan 2012

    The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasts 3.1% GDP growth in the region in 2012, but warns that any worsening of the eurozone crisis could trigger recession

  • Buffett sings for his Chinese supper

    23 Jan 2012

    Was Warren Buffett's appearance on Chinese TV over the weekend an attempt to reassure retail investors that China's market rally will continue?

  • CIC’s Thames Water deal puts focus on Chinese reserves bind

    23 Jan 2012

    China's repressed financial system has heaped on the risk that the central bank will soon sit on large losses on its FX holdings, a fillip for SWF-led investments

  • EM monetary policy: growth to the fore

    23 Jan 2012

    Investors are betting on a slew of EM rate cuts this year but FX volatility and stubborn inflation might spoil the stimulus party

  • Rising Asian demand ‘will cushion euro export blow’

    23 Jan 2012

    Asian export economies are now better insulated against a slowdown in Europe and the US than they were in 2008-9, according to new research

  • Jan 20: Green shoots vs. yellow weeds

    20 Jan 2012

    The apparent decoupling between asset markets – EM equities, in particular - and continued macro stress this week is a source of optimism for some and fear for others. Take your pick.

  • EM equities: this time is different ... again

    19 Jan 2012

    Sell-side analysts are once again calling for emerging market equities to outperform, based on attractive valuations. Will they be right this time?

  • Greece woes mount as debt talks reach climax

    19 Jan 2012

    Crisis talks with private sector debt holders are reaching a climax, but even if a deal is reached, it will do little to resolve Greece’s chronic fiscal problems

  • Indonesia “the India of two years ago”

    19 Jan 2012

    Warnings that loose monetary policy to turbo-charge growth to 7% could sow the seeds of a hard landing in two years time

  • Mexico pension funds: rolling in it

    19 Jan 2012

    Mexican pension funds – holding some $121bn of assets – have generated strong real returns in recent years and could provide a strong technical bid for domestic stocks

  • Message from Vienna: time is running out

    18 Jan 2012

    A new Vienna Initiative is urgently needed to prevent financial system meltdown in Central and Eastern Europe, key stakeholders have warned

  • Soaring oil costs 'could deepen Europe’s downturn'

    18 Jan 2012

    Currency weakness has driven energy costs in Europe to near-record highs, analysts warn

  • World Bank issues emerging market recession warning

    18 Jan 2012

    A Lehman-type event in Europe or the US could shave more than 4% off GDP growth in developing nations, the World Bank has warned

  • Hungary plays with fire

    17 Jan 2012

    The European Commission has launched legal proceedings against Budapest, raising the stakes in bitter negotiations over a financial rescue package

  • Vienna 2.0: all talk, no action. Yet

    17 Jan 2012

    Talks on a new Vienna Initiative to prevent banking sector collapse across Central and Eastern Europe have so far failed to yield concrete results

  • CEE: hostage to eurozone fortunes

    16 Jan 2012

    Standard and Poor's decision to downgrade nine eurozone sovereigns has heightened the risks for Central and Eastern Europe, experts warn

  • Egypt-IMF negotiations: this time it’s different

    16 Jan 2012

    The odds of a balance-of-payments crisis in Egypt are uncomfortably high, despite talks this week between the capital-starved nation and the IMF

  • Goldman: robust China demand to drive metals higher

    16 Jan 2012

    Goldman Sachs has forecast robust industrial commodity price growth in 2012, despite signs of a Chinese slowdown

EM Week


In Focus: Eastern Europe

  1. Eurozone deleveraging threatens CEE growth

  2. Malev turbulence set to roil Hungarian state finances

  3. Romania 'risks losing investor credibility'

  4. Hungary: a temporary hiatus