Emerging Markets

News stories

• Message to emerging markets: prepare for QE3

  The US Federal Reserve has strongly hinted that it may sanction a further round of quantitative easing in the coming months, posing policy challenges for emerging markets

• The great Western bank deleveraging

  IIF sounds alarm on Western bank retreat from emerging markets, as capital flows are forecast to fall to $746bn this year.

• Brazil rates: how low will they go?

  Brazil’s central bank indicated that interest rates will fall below 10% this year, but how far they cut and for how long will depend on fiscal policy

• Apple's China charm offensive pays off

  China is the undisputed king of the Brics for Apple, highlighting the country’s huge – but all too often derided – consumption story

• Jan 23-27: EM reads

  Our selection of emerging markets-focused commentary on markets, economics and international policy, updated throughout the week

• Asean rate cuts: more aggressive than post-Lehman

  Thai rate cut highlights how monetary easing in the Asean region this year is set to outpace the post-Lehman maelstrom, according to Nomura.

• Hungary: a temporary hiatus

  Hungary’s surprise rate hold does not suggest that Budapest is close to an agreement with the EU. Expect more rate rises, currency weakness and rising bond yields, analysts warn

• Revealed: the missing 25% of Angola's GDP

  The IMF has uncovered that a $32 billion accounting discrepancy in Angola's budget is linked to state oil firm Sonangol. A massive shift in Luanda's institutional framework and political culture is needed to weed out fiscal slippage.

• China Davos snub goes viral

  China's historic decision to miss the World Economic Forum is rich in symbolism and has stirred debate

• IMF slashes emerging market growth forecasts

  The International Monetary Fund is the latest high-profile organisation to cut its EM growth outlook for 2012, but stopped short of a recession warning.

• Indian central bank: no rate cuts without fiscal consolidation

  The Reserve Bank of India kept rates on hold, warning that fiscal consolidation is critical to create the space to cut rates without the imminent risk of resurgent inflation

• Eastern Europe slowdown warning belies recession risks

  The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasts 3.1% GDP growth in the region in 2012, but warns that any worsening of the eurozone crisis could trigger recession

• CIC’s Thames Water deal puts focus on Chinese reserves bind

  China's repressed financial system has heaped on the risk that the central bank will soon sit on large losses on its FX holdings, a fillip for SWF-led investments

• EM monetary policy: growth to the fore

  Investors are betting on a slew of EM rate cuts this year but FX volatility and stubborn inflation might spoil the stimulus party

• Ominous omen: Israel cuts rates

  The move by Israeli central bank governor Stanley Fischer, a renowned monetary policy prophet, sugggests further rate cuts across EM

• Buffett sings for his Chinese supper

  Was Warren Buffett's appearance on Chinese TV over the weekend an attempt to reassure retail investors that China's market rally will continue?

• EM equities: this time is different ... again

  Sell-side analysts are once again calling for emerging market equities to outperform, based on attractive valuations. Will they be right this time?

• IMF funding boost: over to you, China

  The bulk of the $600 billion in new funds sought by the IMF will have to come from large emerging economies. It's do or die.

Other news stories

Features

• 

  CHINA: Moving targets

  China’s approach to migrant labour is changing in a way that could transform the lives of hundreds of millions of workers. It could also help fundamentally rebalance the world’s second-largest economy

• 

  CREDIT RATING AGENCIES: Under the influence

  Public anger at credit rating agencies has reawakened calls for a drastic reduction of their powers and for greater accountability. But a lack of credible alternatives suggests the solution to poor financial regulation may lie elsewhere

• 

  OFFSHORE RMB: Red herring?

  Recent months have seen an outsized level of excitement in global financial markets over the sale in Hong Kong of so-called ‘dim sum’ bonds. But there is reason to question the true scale of the offshore renminbi market and its potential growth

• 

  SOVEREIGN DEFAULT: A tale of two countries

  The divergent experiences of Argentina and Uruguay over the past decade show that managing sovereign crises and weighing up whether to default is rarely clear cut – even today

Comment & Opinion

• NICOLAS VERON: Banking federalism key to eurozone survival

  An integrated banking system must be a central part of any credible crisis-resolution plan

• 

  AGUSTIN CARSTENS: Boost the IMF but reform it too

  The G20 must provide the IMF with greater resources to tackle systemic crises, but a funding increase must be accompanied by governance reform

• 

  YU YONGDING: The absurdity of the Sino-US currency spat

  It is in neither China's nor the US’ best interest to continue bickering over currency

• MANFRED NEUMANN: The ECB’s dangerous game

  The ECB’s bond-buying policy is undemocratic, runs counter to its mandate and must end if it is to rebuild its relationship with Germany

• JEAN PISANI-FERRY: Europe must unchain itself to save itself

  Europe has enough resources to resolve its current crisis but an extraordinary series of constraints means it has to turn to emerging economies for help

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